Israel's Rift With Egypt Could Create a Future for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza
The growing rift between Israel and Egypt broke out into the open over the weekend, now threatening its bilateral relationship. To remove any doubts about it, please note these revelations were not made via "intended leaks" or background commentary.
The news of Egypt's refusal to coordinate the introduction of humanitarian aid with Israel through the Rafah crossing was reported by the Al-Qahera news channel, which is owned by the Egyptian intelligence. Though for several days it was kept a secret, in order to avoid a deterioration in relations that might put the Camp David accords at risk, it is not Egypt's official public position.
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Cairo's anger comes as no surprise to Washington and should have not surprised Israel. For weeks, Cairo issued warnings in which it demanded firmly, mainly from Washington, that it stop Israel from invading Rafah and taking control of the border crossing between Gaza and Egypt.
Israeli tanks at the Rafah border crossing in Gaza last week. Egypt's decision to cease coordination with Israel was kept secret for many days, and has no become the official and public position.Credit: AP
The Egyptian concern about the breach of the border by hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from Gaza is also not new. Egypt had expressed its concerns from the earliest days of the Gaza war, and nevertheless continued to cooperate with Israel in delivering humanitarian aid. Unlike Jordan and Turkey, Egypt did not recall its ambassador to Tel Aviv.
Egyptian intelligence maintained its close relations with the heads of the Israeli military and intelligence, even as the direct pipeline to the Prime Minister's Office was getting clogged. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi had made clear since the beginning of the war that the Camp David agreements were not up for discussion, and it was in this spirit that the Egyptians maintained their channels of communication.
Last week, something changed when some former Egyptian officials started to speak even of "the possibility of a military confrontation with Israel" if the Israel Defense Forces crossed the border into Sinai. Egypt would not be able to take decisive action if its sovereignty was violated. Its decision to stop the coordination of action with Israel precisely on the issue of humanitarian aid is not only unprecedented, it signals Cairo's willingness to take drastic measures that may lead to a diplomatic conflict.
Egypt's announcement on Sunday that it was joining South Africa's petition to the International Court of Justice in The Hague is only a declaration of intent, but the fact that it was taking such a step, after waiting eight months, illustrates the depth of the crisis.
From the first moment, Egypt adhered to full coordination of action with Israel, even though it could have opened the Rafah crossing to allow the unrestricted entry of aid convoys into Gaza. The El Arish Airport became a transit point and logistic center for aid from countries all over the world, and the inspection and transportation procedures prescribed by Israel were carefully observed.
Palestinian police forces in Ramallah in the West Bank, last month. The PA would not have to wage battles against Hamas if it had control of the Gaza Strip. The IDF would be responsible for that, perhaps along with an international force.Credit: AFP
Egyptian control of the Rafah border crossing was always considered the main means of pressuring Hamas, even more so than the aid it received from Qatar, because it served as the economic artery and key tool for Hamas' control over civilian life in Gaza. But the minute that Israel seized control of the crossing, it lost its relevance. The Rafah crossing is now a way for Egypt to exert pressure on Israel, not on Hamas, by ceasing cooperation and compelling Israel to return to the status quo.
Already, Egypt's move has caused the number of trucks entering Gaza to fall dramatically. Cairo assumes that international – mainly U.S. – pressure will force Israel to reconsider any occupation of Rafah. Theoretically, Israel could open all its crossing points into Gaza to replace Rafah, but that may find itself facing a united front of all the Arab and Western countries it currently cooperates with, who would refuse to accept such a step.
The result is that Egypt's move and America's threat to delay offensive ammunition shipments to Israel has given the two countries the power to shape the future of the Gaza war, assuming that Israel does not adopt Netanyahu's hollow rhetoric and "fighting tooth and nail" against Egypt as well. It brings to the top of the agenda the creation of a Palestinian administration for Gaza, that begins operations right now without waiting for that distant "the day after."
In an interview with the American television personality Phil McGraw, popularly known as Dr. Phil, Netanyahu spoke of "some kind of civilian government, civilian administration by Gazans who are not committed to our destruction, possibly with the aid of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and other countries that want to see stability and peace."
But the idea is still born. The UAE's foreign minister, Abdullah bin Zayed, abandoned polite diplomatic language and said in response, "The UAE stresses that the Israeli prime minister does not have any legal capacity to take this step, and the state refuses to be drawn into any plan aimed at providing cover for the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip."
He could not have been any clearer, and Qatar and Egypt responded in the same vein. The false maxim marketed by Israeli officials about an Arab coalition to govern Gaza does not stand up to the test of reality. The only Arab coalition that exists is the one that is demanding Israel end the war and not widen its Rafah assault.
Mohammad Mustafa, the new Palestinian prime minister (right) with Mahmoud Abbas, in March.Credit: Majdi Mohammed/AP
But the Palestinian Authority is also in no hurry to assume responsibility for Gaza, certainly not in a situation where it would appear to be subject to orders from the IDF and without appropriate administrative tools with which to establish control. The 88-year-old Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who underwent medical tests at a hospital on Sunday, has outlined the conditions for his willingness to administrate Gaza. Among them is that this step must be part of a broad diplomatic deal that will guarantee a negotiated solution to the Palestinian issue.
The resolution that was passed in the UN General Assembly on Friday – to strengthen the status of Palestine in the UN and calling on the Security Council to reconsider its request for full membership – fell short of Abbas' demand. Even if several countries recognize Palestine in the coming weeks, it will have no practical meaning as long as the United States adheres to its position that a two-state solution "will only come from direct negotiations between the parties." An American veto is guaranteed to any such proposal.
But Washington has no diplomatic plan other than negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, when it is well aware that such talks currently have no chance. A few months ago, Abbas proposed that the U.S. and European countries organize an international conference to discuss practical measures to realize the two-state solution. He stressed that such a gathering could fulfill, at least in the first stage, his diplomatic condition for PA involvement in Gaza. But Washington is not even willing to discuss, much less, initiate, such a conference.
On the other hand, the Biden administration's expectations for reforms in the Palestinian Authority – that would meet President Joe Biden's definition of a "revitalized' PA that could benefit from U.S. support in managing the strip – are not being met. Abbas appointed economist Mohammad Mustafa as prime minister in March. It's only been two months, but all the reform plans have remained on paper for now.
It is possible that soon, Washington, at least, will need to demonstrate "strategic flexibility," (to borrow from the verbal arsenal of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), and agree to PA involvement in Gaza even without genuine reforms. In light of the developments in Gaza; the IDF's complaint that the lack of a diplomatic plan negates military accomplishment and jeopardizes the lives of soldiers; the U.S. pressure against the Rafah operation and Egypt's refusal to continue coordinating with Israel – whose seriousness cannot be overstated – America might have no choice.
But even if these diplomatic land mines are removed, and we cannot yet see how this could be done, the Palestinian Authority will need much more than a few armored vehicles and small arms to do the job.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich in the Knesset in February. There is so need to guess what his position on the Palestinian Authority is.Credit: Oren Ben Hakoon
The PA does have a few thousand officials who receive salaries in Gaza and could begin rebuilding at least some of the civilian institutions, but it lacks sufficient policing forces, and the existing force doesn't have the firepower it needs to address the immediate challenge of maintaining order. The Palestinian police do undergo military training, some in Jericho and some in Jordan, but they are far from meeting Gaza's needs.
The PA will not be required to wage battles against Hamas; the IDF will be responsible for that, along with an international force that agrees to the task should the PA own the house. At the same time, the PA will need billions of dollars for salaries, and especially to restore essential services such as water, electricity and public health. At present, the Gulf states refuse to help as long as Israel controls the Strip, but it can be assumed that they will pitch in if they receive guarantees that the money will go to the Palestinian Authority and not via Israel.
Will Israel agree to such an arrangement? Will it release all the tax and customs revenue it has collected on behalf of the PA, including the Gazan share that is currently frozen in an account in Norway? The answer to this is in the hands of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who has more control over the budget of the Palestinian Authority than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does. Smotrich's position is obvious: Any diplomatic plan for Gaza is conditioned first on a "political plan" that will make it possible. As long as Israel's political structure sits atop a minefield that jeopardizes its existence, there is no point in examining the PA's professional capability to run the Gaza Strip.